Infectious Disease Modeling

Mathematical Modeling 

This research focuses on integrating epidemiology and evolutionary ecology or economics in order to generate predictions that could not be made by these disciplines alone. This interdisciplinary approach has widespread potential for answering evolutionary questions, explaining empirical observations and informing public health policy. Professor Galvani has applied this approach to the study of HIV, influenza, HPV, SARS and helminth parasites.

Current Projects

Vaccination - Vaccination behavior in social contact networks
Viral Evolution- In silico viral evolution and selection

Spatial Models - utilize spatial statistics and epidemiological modeling techniques, in combination with novel data sources, to explore interactions between geographic space, social space, and disease transmission dynamics. This work is designed to improve the parameterization of social mixing in network models of infectious disease.

Influenza

  • Optimal  resource allocation and mitigation of seasonal and pandemic influenza
  • Modeling the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and the role of agricultural methods on the evolution of virulent strains
  • Modeling benefits for the vaccination of 'superspreaders'
  • Retrospective assessment of the effects of vaccination upon the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic

HPV- Human Papillomavirus dynamics and multi-actor vaccine decision making

HIV

  • HIV and schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa
  • Similarities between virus spread, innovation dissemination, and social networks. 
  • Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions for HIV and TB in resource-limited settings

Rotavirus -modeling the incidence of rotavirus in England and Wales and impact of vaccination
Prion Disease - explain the epidemiological impact of host resistance to prions using Kuru as an example case.

Dengue -  This project simulates dengue dynamics in a small (50-100 home) urban neighborhood.
Rabies - dynamic modeling to study canine and wildlife rabies transmission in areas bordering Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. 
Human African Trypanosomiasis - Integrated tsetse fly ecology and genetics for improved sleeping sickness control

Publications

  • Luz, P.M., Vanni, T., Medlock, J., Paltiel, A.D. & Galvani, A.P. (2011) Economic evaluation of dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting. The Lancet.
  • Wells, C.R., Tchuenche, J.M., Meyers, L.A., Galvani, A.P. & C.T. Bauch (2011) The impact of imitation processes on the effectiveness of ring vaccination. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.
  • Liu, J., Kochin, B.F., Tekle, Y.I., Galvani, A.P. (2011) Epidemiological game theoretic dynamics of chickenpox vaccination in the US and Israel. J. R. Soc. Interface.
  • Vietri, J.T., Chapman, G.B., Ming, L. & Galvani, A.P. (2011) Preferences for HPV vaccination in parent-child dyads. Preventative Medicine.
  • Reluga, T.C. & Galvani, A.P. (2011) A general approach for population games with application to vaccination. Mathematical Biosciences.
  • Volz, E.M., Miller, J.C., Galvani, A.P. & Meyers, L.A. (2011) Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics. PLoS Computational Biology.
  • Li, M., Chapman, G.B., Ibuka, Y., Meyers, L.A. & Galvani, A.P. (2011) Who got vaccinated against H1N1 pandemic flu? - A longitudinal study. Psychology and Health.
  • Bauch, C. , Li, M, Chapman, G.B. & Galvani, A.P. (2010) Adherence to cervical screening in the era of human papillomavirus vaccination: how low is too low? Lancet Infectious Diseases. 10:133-137.
  • Li, M., Vietri, J., Galvani, A.P. & Chapman, G. (2010) How do people value life? Psychological Science. 21:163-167.
  • Cornforth, D.M., Reluga, T.C., Shim, E., Bauch, C., Galvani, A.P. & Meyers, L.A. (2010) Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behaviour in contact networks. PLoS Computational Biology.
  • Luz, P.M., Struchiner, C.J. & Galvani, A.P. (2010) Modeling transmission dynamics and control of vector-borne neglected tropical diseases. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. In press.
  • Davis, S., Aksoy, S., & Galvani, A.P. (2010) A global sensitivity analysis for African sleeping sickness. Parasitology. In press.
  • Shim, E., Meyers, L.A., & Galvani, A.P. (2010) Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest. BMC Public Health. In press.
  • Ibuka, Y., Chapman, GB, Meyers, LA, Li, M & Galvani, A.P. (2010) The dynamics of risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in response to H1N1 pandemic influenza. BMC Infectious Diseases. In press.