In an appearance at the Yale School of Public Health, a leading climate change scientist didn’t hesitate to sound the alarm.
“We have to phase out fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. We’re quickly reaching the point of no return, where remedies won’t be effective anymore,” said James E. Hansen, Ph.D., a former NASA scientist who has also been named one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time Magazine and one of the top 100 global thinkers by Foreign Policy. “We know enough to inform policymakers now.”
Hansen was in residence at Yale for three days last week and participated in a variety of events, including a health and climate change symposium at the School of Public Health, where the Yale Climate Change and Health Initiative (CCHI) was recently launched.
In his introduction, Robert Dubrow, M.D., Ph.D., professor at YSPH and faculty director of CCHI, called Hansen “a leader and pioneer in the field of climate science. [He has] the ability to see farther than his peers and he was willing to go out on a limb.”
Dubrow said Hansen’s 1988 testimony before Congress about the consequences of global warming “took courage; he took a lot of flack.” He added that Hansen’s warning is now widely accepted, and his congressional testimony was an “important step” in launching a global response to the problem.
Friday’s symposium in Winslow Auditorium included a conversation between Hansen and Dubrow in which audience members were encouraged to ask questions. To kick off the conversation, Dubrow asked Hansen why people should care about a temperature jump of 2 degrees Celsius, which has been established by the United Nations as dangerous to surpass.
Hansen said that while two degrees may sound minor, people don’t realize that it is very large. “The economic implications are incalculable, and it’s a very small taste of what’s going to occur if we don’t do something quickly,” he said
Hansen’s solution is to impose a carbon fee and dividend. This fee (or tax) would be imposed on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, increasing their prices. The money collected would be distributed in an equal amount (the dividend) to every legal U.S. resident, thereby rewarding those who conserve. “As long as fossil fuel is the cheapest source of energy, people are going to keep burning it,” Hansen said, “so we need to put a rising fee on fossil fuels and make the price more honest to reflect the true cost. We need to provide the right incentives (to burn less fossil fuels.) People who do well (by lowering their fuel consumption) will come out ahead.”
Hansen said his plan would have to be enacted gradually and that it would only work if it were implemented worldwide. Hansen predicts that after 10 years, the carbon fee and dividend would reduce emissions by 30 percent. After 20 years, the reduction would reach 55 percent.
We have to phase out fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. We’re quickly reaching the point of no return, where remedies won’t be effective anymore.
James Hansen
He predicts China will take the lead “because they know climate change is real, they’re already feeling it. Three hundred million people live at sea level, and air pollution is a disaster.”
Asked by Dubrow whether he is optimistic, Hansen said it depends on how successful scientists and policymakers are in getting young people to understand the problem and the solution.
The symposium also featured remarks from six Yale researchers, including Xi Chen, Ph.D., assistant professor at the School of Public Health, who discussed prenatal exposure to temperature extremes and birth outcomes in China. Chen’s research has found a 15.7 percent higher chance of lower birth weights and 43 percent higher rate of birth defects among babies born when they were exposed in utero to 10 additional days of extremely cold weather. He said that babies in the second trimester were more stable during a cold snap, while babies in the first and third trimester were more vulnerable. His study also showed that, compared to extreme cold weather during pregnancy, exposure to heat wave causes more deaths in utero.
Nicole Deziel, Ph.D., assistant professor at the school, talked about the public health impact of unconventional natural gas extraction, also know as fracking. She said there are “many potential hazards” and that fracking produces “enormous quantities of waste material with lots of potential for environmental health hazards.” Of the 1,000 chemicals associated with fracking, Deziel identified 49 that are known or possible human carcinogens. She concluded that more studies are “urgently needed.”
Other speakers included Kevin Lane, Ph.D., postdoctoral associate, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, who discussed the role of climate action plans in reducing urban heat island effects; Jesse Berman, Ph.D., postdoctoral fellow, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, discussed droughts and the risk of emergency room hospitalizations and mortality in the western United States; Lori Post, Ph.D., associate professor at the Yale School of Medicine, discussed mobilizing public and political will to address climate change and food security; and Srinath Krishnan, Ph.D., postdoctoral associate, Department of Geology and Geophysics, talked about high resolution climate models and predicting Lyme disease in New England.
Hansen is the former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and is a professor at the Earth Institute of Columbia University, where he directs the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions. In addition to the YSPH symposium, he was the featured guest at a Master’s Tea at Branford College and he gave a public talk at Kline Geology Laboratory during his visit to Yale. For more information about his carbon fee and dividend plan, go to the Citizens’ Climate Lobby website at citizensclimatelobby.org.
The CCHI uses Yale's multidisciplinary expertise and global reach to train future leaders, provide a comprehensive educational program and catalyze innovative research, all to address one of the greatest public health challenges of the 21st century. The symposium was jointly sponsored by the Yale Climate and Energy Institute.
Noting that the effects of climate change in the world today may be ahead of what the models have predicted, Dubrow said that Hansen’s “steadfast advocacy” and search for solutions is just what’s needed.